Artificial intelligence
AI safety research
Measured in alignment results / yr. The numbers below are transparent inputs — argue with them.
Why it scores the way it does
Importance × Tractability × Neglectedness (each 0–10) sets the bet's impact ceiling. Composite = 0.405 → ceiling 40.5 pts.
Importancehow much the problem matters9/10
Tractabilityhow solvable with money now5/10
Neglectednesshow underfunded it is today9/10
Diminishing returns
Each added billion does a little less than the last. The field saturates around $6B (≈63% of the ceiling). Marginal impact of the next $B at $10B funded: 1.27 pts/$B.
Assumptions, in the open
A small, badly underfunded field with very high stakes — so the first dollars carry enormous leverage. But the field is small, so it saturates fast: money has to grow talent before it can absorb scale.
bet.audit
$ moonshot-impact inspect ai-safetyfingerprint 28e2997de3951da1itn I=9 T=5 N=9composite 0.405ceiling 40.5 ptssaturation $6Bsource illustrative input · not a measurement