Energy & climate
Clean energy at scale
Measured in MtCO₂e avoided / yr. The numbers below are transparent inputs — argue with them.
Why it scores the way it does
Importance × Tractability × Neglectedness (each 0–10) sets the bet's impact ceiling. Composite = 0.35 → ceiling 35 pts.
Importancehow much the problem matters10/10
Tractabilityhow solvable with money now7/10
Neglectednesshow underfunded it is today5/10
Diminishing returns
Each added billion does a little less than the last. The field saturates around $18B (≈63% of the ceiling). Marginal impact of the next $B at $10B funded: 1.12 pts/$B.
Assumptions, in the open
Grid-scale storage and next-gen solar are largely tractable but already attract heavy private capital, so the field is only moderately neglected. Returns saturate slowly — there is room for a lot of money.
bet.audit
$ moonshot-impact inspect clean-energyfingerprint 853e27b02433a77eitn I=10 T=7 N=5composite 0.35ceiling 35 ptssaturation $18Bsource illustrative input · not a measurement