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Infrastructure

Global connectivity

Measured in people newly connected. The numbers below are transparent inputs — argue with them.

Why it scores the way it does

Importance × Tractability × Neglectedness (each 0–10) sets the bet's impact ceiling. Composite = 0.252 → ceiling 25.2 pts.

Importancehow much the problem matters7/10
Tractabilityhow solvable with money now9/10
Neglectednesshow underfunded it is today4/10

Diminishing returns

Each added billion does a little less than the last. The field saturates around $16B (≈63% of the ceiling). Marginal impact of the next $B at $10B funded: 0.84 pts/$B.

ceiling 25 pts$40B funded →

Assumptions, in the open

Satellite and rural broadband are very tractable and already well capitalised, so neglectedness is low. Large, slowly-saturating capacity to absorb funding.

bet.audit
$ moonshot-impact inspect global-connectivity
fingerprint 1d8a0586ba3ab7ee
itn I=7 T=9 N=4
composite 0.252
ceiling 25.2 pts
saturation $16B
source illustrative input · not a measurement