Space
Affordable access to space
Measured in $/kg to orbit reduction. The numbers below are transparent inputs — argue with them.
Why it scores the way it does
Importance × Tractability × Neglectedness (each 0–10) sets the bet's impact ceiling. Composite = 0.336 → ceiling 33.6 pts.
Importancehow much the problem matters7/10
Tractabilityhow solvable with money now8/10
Neglectednesshow underfunded it is today6/10
Diminishing returns
Each added billion does a little less than the last. The field saturates around $14B (≈63% of the ceiling). Marginal impact of the next $B at $10B funded: 1.17 pts/$B.
Assumptions, in the open
Reusable launch is highly tractable and compounding. Importance for near-term human welfare is real but indirect, so weighted a notch lower than energy.
bet.audit
$ moonshot-impact inspect space-accessfingerprint e5f93296bc8aef25itn I=7 T=8 N=6composite 0.336ceiling 33.6 ptssaturation $14Bsource illustrative input · not a measurement